S2N Spotlight
What I was hoping to feature in the spotlight section didn’t make the cut.
S2N Observations
One of my favourite market commentators had presented a wonderful thesis about how the Gold/Silver ratio breaking down was a brilliant lead indicator for the SP500. I tried my best, but it simply doesn’t stack up for me. I am sharing for pure educational purposes. However, if any of you see something I am missing let me know.
The same analyst brought up one of my old favourites and quoted his source of data, but I could also not get my data to match, not even close. However, I do believe that with this sentiment survey data, there is a signal, but it is about as reliable as Greg Norman at the US Masters.
I have shown a similar chart before with the spread between the bulls and bears. In this one, I am sharing the 8-week moving average of the bull%. It is weekly data that can be extremely noisy, so I tried to quieten it a little to see if I could pick up a signal. Once again, extreme moves are contrarian signals; it is just impossible to know in real time whether the extreme reading is bullish or bearish. I think I might transition away from looking at this data. It is based on a survey, which always worries me. It is, however, a very old survey. I prefer looking at what people do, not what they say.
I said yesterday I would take a look at credit card delinquencies as the total credit card debt climbed over $1 trillion. It is clearly climbing. This might be one to watch.
Finally, the Swiss Central Bank has become quite well known for surprising the market. Yesterday, they didn’t disappoint, with a 0.25% cut to 1.25%. It caused a reaction in the Swiss / Euro but nothing compared to when they broke the peg.