#98: China is Down but not Out

S2N Spotlight

Many years ago, I wrote an article in my weekly blog that seemed to strike a chord. Out of all the articles I have ever written, this one seemed to get the most engagement. The article was about body language and the “wink” in particular. I regard myself as a bit of a body language expert. I have read a number of books on the subject, and I am a keen observer. The handshake is one of my favourites. I feel like I could write a biography about someone after shaking their hand.

Today an uncommon behaviourism popped up at my local coffee shop that really got my head buzzing. I will get to the action that caught my attention but first some background about the person of interest.

A few weeks ago this guy sat next to me and I straight away noticed that he could not stop tapping / bouncing his foot. Everything about this guy represented someone cool and collected. The way he set up his workstation was all cool and calm. The way his hair was combed and his dress was all cool. But there was this one little nagging constant. Under the table his foot was doing more mileage than a marathoner. What was worse it was driving me mad. I couldn’t stop looking every few minutes. I journaled I have this annoying tapper next to me. I called my wife and said that I have an annoying tapper next to me. I called my mom and said I am going to kill this guy if he doesn’t stop tapping. They both said move, stop bothering me with rubbish 😎.

Tapping ones foot is not so unusual but my reaction was. This guy is now regular and I always look to see if he is tapping, he always is. So what is going on here?

In psychology, especially according to the Jungian branch of analytical psychoanalysis, it would seem that I am experiencing a form of shadow projection. In plain language there is something in the behaviour I dislike that I see in myself. The tell is my overreaction, it is a way of the psyche placing the anger/embarrassment/sadness/…. on the other instead of oneself, a form of self preservation. Lets unpack what I am hating on. The guys tapping is really a sign of his anxiety. While he is putting an image of cool perfection out to the world his tapping foot is leaking light into his inner world that is less confident.

We all go through moments of our own anxiety and I am going through my own fair share at the moment. I think me getting so worked up about the anxiety in this poor guy is me not liking the fact that I am feeling vulnerable myself. I believe taking stock of how we are feeling about ourselves is very important and it is especially important to take stock (excuse the pun) when we are investing or trading. I have come across so many traders/investors over the years who have financially destroyed themselves by playing out a personal complex through their trading behaviour.

So what did the tapper do today that pissed me off so much?

(I will need to gauge the interaction I get from this letter before I share more)

S2N Observations

China Investors’ New Nickname Shows Frustration With Market Rout

2024-07-09 06:31:51.795 GMT

(Bloomberg) — Some of China’s 200 million mom-and-pop investors have given themselves a sarcastic new nickname in a show of frustration with the country’s failure to prop up the stock market.

Lamenting the lack of returns, they call themselves “financial consumers.” Chinese regulators used the term on June 28 when it vowed to protect the rights of those who buy financial products, but pessimistic investors adopted the saying to express their disappointment as a rally in Chinese equities that began earlier this year fizzled out. Related searches have spiked since late last month on social media sites including WeChat.

“We’re not investors. We have a new identity called consumer,” said an investment commentator in a video liked 14,000 times on Douyin. “Don’t think about making a profit. You should think of yourself as a consumer spending money.”

The moniker encapsulates the sense of pessimism as China’s benchmark index for domestic shares erased this year’s gains ahead of a key policy meeting next week.

A few weeks ago I suggested that the trade was to go long China and short the USA. So far that trade has proved early. I think it is an error to write-off the Chinese economy and population. This is the world second largest economy and population. Nathan Rothschild is famous for saying one should invest when there is blood in the street. Buffett has added to this phrases popularity.

The chart above shows the contrasting fortunes of Indian investors. This chart of their stock market is hot as, just like their summer.

Finally an observation that caught me by surprise. Whilst the world major stock markets are being driven to new highs by their tech sectors, the Australian stock market is different. The broad market has been making new all-time highs but the ASX Tech sector is still lagging below its October 2021 highs.

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