The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#104: Consumer Sentiment & Bad Breadth
A look a the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. We also show the -3% Nasdaq drop. Weakness in the US Dollar and advanced decline on the S&P 500
#103: Small Caps have a Big Day
I comment on the big jump in the Russell 2000 and that the small caps might be making their comeback against the large caps. I also show the days since a -2% and US Retail Sales.
#102: Trillions in Off-Book Debt
A look at China versus the USA. I highlight some of China’s economic challenges. Look at deficit to GDP %. Trump Media Tech has a big bounce.
Natural Gas is out of Gas.
#101: The Paradox of Increments
I share a paradox that is logical but not psychologically sound. I then share a psychological insight that makes it psychologically and logically sound.
#100: Milestone Reflections with a Peak into the Future
I provide an update on the 1st 100 daily letters and some vision for Signal2Noise future.
#99: Warning: Not for Rate Sensitive Viewers
I make the startling discovery that interest rates have no impact on the future performance of the S&P 500.
I also call Biden dropping out and the markets topping.
#98: China is Down but not Out
I share a story about body language and how we can use it for self awareness. I share thoughts on China being down but not out.
#97: Are we heading towards a recession?
We look at the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. We also look at the Large Caps versus the Small Caps.
#96: How to Outperform the S&P 500 Index
I provide an in-depth look at the superior returns of investing in an equal weighted SP500 index versus the classic market cap weighted SP500 index.