#170: Screener Alerts

“An index investor can earn 8% per year, but with an experienced and savvy fund manager, you can easily improve that to 6% per year.” Morgan Housel.

S2N Spotlight

I have been working on and off on a “screener alerts” project for many months. I have built a number of screeners and will continue to add more. The screeners will run every day, and I plan to share only the most interesting one or two in a new section in the newsletter, see below. I am busy automating that the alerts will be sent to a Telegram channel and other applications that you might find useful, as well as the website’s research portal. This project has taken way too long and is not 100% complete, but very close. I am now able to loop through tens of 1000’s of variations every day to find “signals” from the “noise.”

S2N Observations

I have to say Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy is very smart and perhaps even dumber. He has just announced one of the biggest ever equity raises. He is looking to raise $42 billion to invest in Bitcoin over the next 3 years. He borrowed a huge amount to invest in Bitcoin and nearly went bust. Talk about pushing your luck. He either becomes the richest man on earth or he blows up spectacularly.

I have written a few times about the staggering performance of Super Micro Computers share price outperforming NVIDIA however, that seems to have been short lived. This is NVIDIA’s 3rd largest customer who has just seen their auditor resign, and they are facing being delisted off the Nasdaq. Watch this space. Quite a spectacular chart for the enthusiasts.

The long China via Hang Seng and short USA via S&P 500 trade is still on; look at the black ratio line reverting to the mean.

A brief look at the price journey year-to-date of some of the main asset classes.

Performance Review

For those who are new to the letter, the shading is Z-Score adjusted so that only moves bigger than usual for the symbol are highlighted.

Chart Gallery

Screener Alerts

I am hoping these alerts are self-explanatory, but I will do a blog post explaining in more detail.

In short, the chart shows only the last 2 years, but the data comprises the full period mentioned in the title. Here we see that the 10-year Treasury Note Yield exceeded its 1.5 Z-Score monthly % move, which has only happened 101 times in 50 years. We should be careful when looking at the future performance in the table below with respect to yield. As a yield going up means bonds going down.

I will need to improve the symbology below: GC = Gold futures, NG = Natural gas, SGDUSD = Singapore Dollar, USDCNY = China Renminbi, USDJPY = Japanese Yen.

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