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#173: Buying the Dip Is Complex

#173: Buying the Dip Is Complex

micksonmatch
November 06, 2024

S2N Spotlight

In keeping with the theme I have mentioned a few times in the past few days, I will add some more support for the theme that beating the index is tough.

I am pretty sure most of you would think that a strategy that buys the SP500 when it pulls back 20% and you hold it for 10 years would outperform the index. Well, the answer is not even close. I also tried it for shorter periods all the way to holding for only 1 year, and all underperformed.

Of course, those who have been buying the dip in stocks and bitcoin over the last few years have done very well and probably consider themselves geniuses. I am not suggesting this is a bad investment tactic for long-term investors. As I said in the subject line, Buying the Dip Is Complex.

S2N Screener Alerts

Crude oil continued its upward streak with a 5th day up.

Silver in Australian Dollars has fallen 5 days in a row.

Natural gas had another big down day, dropping through a -3 Z-Score. You can see how many events are marked on just 2 years of data.

GBPZAR (South African Rand) hit a 52-week low.

S2N Observations

Yesterday Nividia applied for criminal amnesty from any prosecution of its 3rd largest customer, Super Micro Computers. As you can see, SMCI has come from nowhere. Something is starting to smell very fishy here. Ken Griffin sold 79% of Citadel’s stake in Nvidia last week. Not suggesting he had inside information, just saying.