Signal2Noise (S2N) News
Posts
#174: A Poll for Your Thoughts

#174: A Poll for Your Thoughts

micksonmatch
November 07, 2024

S2N Spotlight

I was at a dinner party about 2 weeks ago with people I didn’t really know. I said in conversation that the betting odds were pointing to a decisive Trump victory. One guy jumped down my throat and said that the betting odds were BS and that the polls were undecided.

I decided to keep my big mouth shut and left it there.

The rest is, as they say, history. My brother-in-law provides an entertaining commentary of blow-by-blow sarcasm at the polls and the pollsters. There is an old saying in modelling, garbage in and garbage out.

Betting platforms are a very powerful source of information, as there is nothing like getting information from people who have skin in the game.

Trump has always been polarising and has possibly endured more ridiculing than almost any other politician I have come across in history. It is no wonder that people are less forthcoming with the truth when being polled.

A French national who ran four interrelated accounts on the crypto betting site Polymarket has profited handsomely from his bets on former President Donald Trump. The user’s combined profit was over $47 million, according to MarketWatch calculations of the accounts.

In the chart below, Trump was a predicted winner every day since the 4th of October.

S2N Observations

Yesterday was a massive news day, and today was a day out of the office for me, so I am rather going to simply share the alerts below and leave any observations out of today’s letter.

S2N Screener Alerts

Yesterday was a big day across the board. Bitcoin closed up 9.5% on the day for its 118th time. It has had one of these moves on average every 41 days.

There were a number of assets that registered 3 sigma days, some down and some up. I have shared a few. I really must add name descriptions to the symbols for ease of reference: SI = Silver, USDX = US Dollar Index, GC = Gold, CNYUSD = Chinese Yuan, TSLA = Tesla was up 14% one of the bros, HG = Copper.

I am going to implement a system of rather posting all important alerts to the website and only pick a standout as I feel the newsletter is getting too noisy. If anyone has a view, please share, as I would love to be guided by the user community.