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#250: Strong Opinions Loosely Held

#250: Strong Opinions Loosely Held

Michael Berman, Ph.D.
March 12, 2025

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This is the headline I am reading as I start this letter.

I was listening to a President Trump interview on Sunday with the Money Honey. For those not as old as me, I am referring to Maria Bartiromo, who I grew poor with on CNBC. Those lips 😍.

When asked if his tariffs would have a negative impact on the stock market, he said you shouldn’t look at the markets; you should focus on the bigger picture over time.

After yesterday’s selloff, I had to go and dig this one out. He tweeted/retruthed/posted on August 4, 2024, after the market was down 3%. Yesterday was a similar-sized “crash.”

It actually doesn’t bother me; I love the theatrics. You have to calibrate what he actually says; with Trump, its more about his bigger picture, just like he said to Maria.

I opened the local papers today to see Mike Cannon-Brooks, the billionaire clean energy evangelist, is one of Formula One’s newest sponsors of the William’s team. Hmmm, reading the comments section was better than an episode of Seinfeld.

Another example of strong opinions loosely held is none other than the world’s biggest asset manager, Blackrock. These major corporate titans are no different from politicians. They will say whatever it takes to grease the engine.

“Our job is to be working with society, working with government. Our job is to be working with both sides, and yes – as governments change, you can move from a more progressive view of life to a more conservative view of life, and it doesn’t change our responsibilities.”

The point I am wanting to make is that it is not so easy to do what you say. For example, I presented the other day a trading system that is either short or long the Nasdaq 100 based on its 200-day moving average. This is a system that outperforms the benchmark on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. There are not many systems out there that have such strong track records.

Over the decades, I have seen so many people say they follow a system until it hurts a little or misbehaves a little. Then come the justifications for the change of heart, a new belief. The inner politician comes forth.

I would love to build on this theme some time, but for a daily I fear I am overstepping my time limit. I am also fearful that I am sounding like I am lecturing from a sanctimonous pulpit. I am mainly directing this insight to myself.