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This is a human-written newsletter. In the spirit of keeping it real, I want to say that I am emotionally and mentally exhausted at the moment. After almost never missing a daily letter in 300, I have missed a few in the past week.

I have a lot going on outside of work, and over the past 10 days I have been coding an average of 14 hours a day. It feels like there is nothing I cannot do with the help of AI. I have been manic for sure, but the problem is we are human and suffer the limitations humans suffer.

Of all things, I have developed a painful bout of “tennis elbow,” an overuse injury from working on my keyboard and my mouse. I tell you all this because I feel like I haven’t been at my best and want to maintain the high standards I have set for myself. My best is still to come.

I also want to share this bit of “humanity” that I had with one of the LLMs I was working with yesterday. This was after 8 hours of debugging 1 pesky little bug that was driving me mad, so you will excuse my bad language.

I don’t know why, but yesterday I was stuck on this simple idea. I had no idea it would produce the fruits it has. If I had invested 50% in the S&P 500 market cap index (traditional one) and 50% in the S&P 500 equal-weighted index and rebalanced the portfolio once a year. I think the results speak for themselves.

In case you think that this was just a lucky 25 years, I ran the same analysis over 50 years, and guess what. There is more outperformance in this strategy than 99% of the active managers over long periods of time, and the best part is it's free—no fund manager fees.

Naturally the last few days have been dominated by the war in the Middle East. The only asset class that seems to be experiencing any real volatility is oil.

USDC is definitely becoming a serious competitor to Tether. I saw some legislation was passed in the US overnight relating to stablecoins. It sure seems these guys will continue to be the grease of the crypto world's engine. I think this is a fertile ground for stat arb traders, an area I want to spend more time on.

After registering a very weak day in the shekel. The Israeli shekel registered its biggest 1-day Z-score (7.64) with a 3.62% daily return. [this alert is a day old, but I wanted to share it as it is a biggie.]

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