#51 S2N: Has QE failed?

S2N Observations

I have been off the grid the past 2 days, so I will just make this a brief post with things that caught my attention.

Tesla had a big-up day (+15%).

Meta continues to selloff. Forgive me for thinking that these big name stocks are trading like crypto meme stocks.

On the 22 April I said, “I am including a chart of cocoa again, as it went up another 3% on Friday. This is getting a little ridiculous. As a trader who loves trading extremes, this is very tempting to sell. I am going to say its worth a really small short position.“ Cocoa was trading at 11,679 at the time; that is a 23% profit on the short. I have taken profits on half my position. When I say a small position, that means I risk 1% of the total account equity, so to give you an idea of the profit from the trade on the overall portfolio, it is 23% x 1% = 0.23% on the total portfolio. Position sizing is everything in trading. I will need to elaborate more on this topic.

I will close with a look at the Japanese yen from a different angle. The next chart is the yen’s future, and it shows weakness with the chart going down. The RSI on the top panel was the most oversold it has been in more than 40 years, so a 1.21% bounce was not to be unexpected. Open interest and volume remain very elevated, I suspect this is going to be a trade on most macro traders radar for some time.

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