#90: We See What You Want to See

Every week, I walk to the synagogue a few times over the Sabbath. On route, I often see people I am friendly with and will walk alongside them or just behind them, depending on the level of social autism I am suffering from.

Every time I am on my route, I come to a crossroad that nobody seems to be able to see. It blows my mind. I have some of the smartest people in the world that I know walking this route with me, and they just cannot seem to see it.

I used to make the exact same mistake; the route that most follow is what I will call route 2. It is actually the furthest of the 3 routes. I went onto Google Maps 20 minutes ago to see the difference in the various options. Google didn’t even give me an option for my route, which I will call 3. There is, however, a feature where you can measure out a custom route.

So here is the summary:

How do I explain this anomaly?

We will put aside Route 1, as I don’t think it is relevant for the discussion. So why can I see a 750-metre route when 99% of people only seem to see a 950-metre alternative?

This is what I believe. Route 2 is more or less straight at the crossroad. People tend to feel comfortable going with the trend. On the other hand, Route 3 has an abrupt right-angle turn and feels like it is going in the wrong direction, so it feels counterintuitive.

A few years ago, I was running late and bumped into a guy who lived on the road where there was a crossroads decision to make. He no longer lives in the country; he told me that Route 3 is faster. I didn’t believe him and went on Route 2, but he beat me. I now had evidence that proved me wrong, so I updated my belief system and adopted a new route. It is amazing how hard it is to see something that is counterintuitive simply because following a trend is much easier. What is maybe more amazing is how hard it is to update one’s beliefs with factual evidence when it goes against the crowd.

The insights I share are so applicable to trading and investing. Be open to new facts and update your view on the world, even if it feels a little uncomfortable.

I watched what I can only describe as a presidential debate circus. I thought Biden was completely incompetent, and Trump made more exaggerated claims than I have seen the most audacious sales man make. It really is a shame that the USA is being represented on the world stage by such characters. If I were an American, I would vote for Trump without question. I don’t like fence-sitters, so there you have it.

I noticed the Reverse Repo market grew quite a lot yesterday. I think this might be a sign of a lot of economic and political uncertainty. Probably the debate played a role, and banks sitting on excess reserves wanted to park money in a safe harbour.

European Equities are getting nervous. The European VIX has started to climb ahead of its US counterpart

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