The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#85: Gold / Silver Ratio Lead the SP500 ?
I share whether I can see a lead relationship with gold/silver ratio and the SP500. I also look at AAII sentiment data and credit card delinquencies.
#84: How to Backtest a Strategy
I look at the difference of a backtest compared to statistical averages. I provide more evidence of weakening breadth for the Nasdaq. The 2yr Treasury is pointing towards a rate cut. We hit $1 trillion of credit card debt.
#83: I See Divergence, Do You?
I show a deep analysis of the SP500 equal weight index vs a market capitalisation index. I show a Dow Theory signal. Canadian loonie record short interest.
#82: The US Stock Markets are Overbought
I remain bearish the Nasdaq. The index has had a 6 day up streak and the RSI is overbought.
#81: The Nasdaq Due a Correction
I am extremely bearish the US markets with the Nasdaq and NVIDIA in particular as I feel these markets have gone too far. I show how Nasdaq volatility has collapsed and the bearish sentiment through the cumulative 52 week high – low. I am bullish the yield steepening in the US bond market and the yen weakening past 160.
#80: It is important to take risks
I just wanted to let you know that I am going to make all the Python code powering this site available for free. I have promised to have the site architecture improved by the end of the month. I have now made my life harder as I try to add the Python code to this timeframe. I truly believe a lot of code has become commoditized in this A.I. era
#79: Returns like you have never seen
I show a unique visualisation of annual returns. I also show the performance after an RSI goes above 70 on the SP500. I share concerns about the regional bank index $KRE and also the yuan and yen.
#78: Is Trading a Game?
We look at the performance of the SP500 after a 10% drawdown and a 10% daily drop. We also look at bitcoin after a 10% drop. I comment on the Fed’s balance sheet continuing to drop slightly ahead of schedule. We look at how many times silver has dropped 6% and its performance. We then look at #Gamestop $GME and its 39% srop costing roaringkitty $200 million.
#77: Is the Wealth Effect Real?
I take a philosophical look at the wealth effect describing 2 schools of thought. I discuss the European Yield Curve on the back of a rate cut and look at the Fed Fund Futures curve. I mention the incredible volume traded in Nvidia and the $250 profit made in a day by the trader Roaring Kitty. Finally I look at a chart of large caps over small caps.