The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#184: Meet Uncle Charles
An in-depth look at why MicroStrategy is a ponzi scheme with its talk about Bitcoin Yield.
#183: Blind spots
We discuss how people see what they want to see in a largely random world. China has been quietly building up its industry.
#182: Random Runs
A look into randomness of financial markets working with the statistical Runs Test.
#181: Window Dressing
End of month window dressing where fund managers buy quality assets at the end of the month for reporting purposes.
#180: Relationships
I present a unique look at correlation of assets to the US Dollar and SP500.
I also take a look at the progress of the AI LLM industry.
#179: Statistics Don’t Pay the Bills
I explain how looking at inflation numbers in yearly chunks does not capture the cumulative effect of compounding.
#178: I have a Blockage
I make comments about the running costs of the Bitcoin ecosystem and question whether $2 billion a month is sustainable.
#177: Do Fundamentals Count: Part 2?
This time is not different; valuations and fundamentals still work. Today is a continuation as I try to steelman my argument in the face of earnings no longer being a credible metric.
#176: Do Fundamentals Count?
This time is not different valuations and fundamentals still work.