The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#216: Revisiting 60/40 Portfolio’s
I share my views on the power of diversification and most importantly focusing on risk-adjusted returns for long term wealth gain.
#215: Mike’s Crystal Ball for Gold & US Dollar
I make a bullish case for gold and the US dollar for 2025. I also share a correlation study.
#214: Mike’s Crystal Ball for Bonds
I make a forecast on the bond market for 2025 and beyond. I explain how it is difficult based on current evidence to make an outright call for higher rates in the short term.
I also discuss the crazy madness around the $TRUMP meme coin.
#213: Not All Bonds are James (Part 2)
We explain some more details about bonds and the US fiscal deficit and cost of servicing the debt.
#212: Not All Bonds are James
We look at the total return performance history of bonds for the past 20+ years.
#211: Mike’s Crystal Ball for Stocks
I make a forecast on the S&P 500 for 2025 using a combination of valuation, mean reversion and technical analysis.
#210: An Amazing Year for Equities
We take an indepth look at the risk adjusted performance of the S&P500 last year versus previous years.
We discuss briefly the US Trade deficit and the China trade surplus. We look at the dangers of DeFi.
#209: Time for a Short Recap
We take a look at the returns of the major asset classes and US stocks for 2024 versus their max Drawdown. This gives us a good look at their risk adjusted returns.
We then look at the bond yields of the US and China.
#208: A Quick Check-in Check-up
I provide an update on the holiday schedule and discuss the negative digital world, the economic struggle of a society not growing up and the power of quantum computing and the threat for cryptography.