The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#166: Government Needs to Tighten its Belt
I look at the expanding US Federal Deficit and the amount of interest is being spent as a percentage of tax revenue. We are at 27 year highs.
#165: Expanding Quicker than My Waist
I discuss the economic business cycle from NBER and show how the previous record expansion is just one long record that needs correcting.
#164: Annual Strips
We showcase calendar year strips with their average and the year-to-date performance..
#163: 6000 S&P 500 a Done Deal
A look at lots of different charts. 6000 SP500 seems a certainty. We have a Dow Theory non-confirmation. Healthcare looks like a great short.
#162: Close Relationship without Substance
We look indepth at the relationship between the 10yr Treasury yield and the Nominal GDP Rate.
#161: Small Caps Suffer from Size
I showcase how the S&P small caps index is suprisingly underperforming the large caps. I make a bold call for gold and I share the latest inflation numbers.
#160: The Building Block of Life
A story about my days maintaining a network involved in helping protein folding simulation.
#159: World Reserve Currency
We look at the status of the US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency. We also look at the 5 sigma drop in the Hang Seng.