The newsletter is sent around 4 p.m. (AEST). every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#157: Happy New Year
A look at the amount of weeks that are positive in a week. Highlight Goldman Sachs research that US Equity Futures are at extremes. ISM PMI streak below 50 is at 16 months. Oil as a major reversal day.
#156: Your Futures Managed
Performance analysis of a managed futures ETF and a look at Chinese stock outperformance of the US.
#155: A Gift of Wealth
A look at 1 year returns and their standard deviations. I also highlight the COT report on a few assets and share a story on risk about Izzy Englander and Millennium.
#154: Drivers Block
A general look at the markets. The Hang Seng has a big week with 9%+ and gold is on a 6 day streak.
#153: Probability Does Not Equal Profitability
An in-depth look at using Z-Scores as an indicator to calculate probabilities of future above average performance.
#152: Look Further and See Clearer
I produce evidence that an elevated Shiller PE ratio will lead to weak 1,5,10 year future performance.
I also provide further proof of my long China short US stock trade.
#151: Get in Close and Personal
A deep dive statistical look at returns with a focus on the normality of SPY. We look at the Shiller PE and forecast GDP in major countries.